Gilad Shalit Hurt or possibly dead in latest airstrikes on Gaza.

Unconfirmed news from middle east arab TV stations stating that Shalit (the prisoner of war in hands of Hamas) has been seriously injured in air strikes on Gaza. Other reports are stating even sadder news (that he is possibly dead). Reports are unconfirmed. Shalit is a valuable asset to Hamas.

It is very sad that even prisoners of war have to be hit by the planes that killed other innocent babies, women and elderies.

No respect for innocent life. It is very sad.

The US dollar is taking a beating Monday due to midle east war, and Oil is rising.

Federal Reserve Bonds

The Federal Reserve is considering issuing its own debt. This is a first for the Fed which cannot issue bonds by law. It is argued that the move would give the central bank additional flexibility as it tries to stabilize rocky financial markets.

Can anyone explain why the printing press needs to borrow money? After all why they do not just print it?

FDA reviews FHC stock (health company)

On Thursday the FDA panel reviews a company called whose stock is FHC. Company Reports Record Results for Fiscal Year 2008, at High End of Guidance. Net Income attributable to common stock holders rises 215% TO $4.8 MILLION ($0.18 per share).

Stock is currently trading at around $2.80.

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Highlights:

Fourth Quarter -
- Net revenue up 52% to $7.8 million
- Net income attributable to common stockholders increases 108% to $2.3 million
- Gross profit margin widens to 44.8% of net revenues vs. 39.3% of net revenues in prior-year period
- Operating income exceeds $1 million for first quarter in Company's history
FY2008 -
- Unit sales up 34% to 34.7 million.
- Net revenue increases 33% to $25.6 million
- Operating income rises 252% to $3.2 million
- Net income attributable to common stockholders up 215% to $4.8 million

Gross profit increased 73% to $3.5 million, or 44.8% of net revenues, in the most recent quarter, compared with $2.0 million, or 39.3% of net revenues, in the fourth quarter of FY2007. Operating income increased 206% to $1.2 million in the three months ended September 30, 2008, compared with $0.4 million in the corresponding period of the previous fiscal year. This was the first quarter in which the Company reported operating income in excess of $1 million.

The Company expects significant quarter-to-quarter variations in its operating results, due to the timing of large order receipts, production scheduling, and shipping of products.

For the year ended September 30, 2008, net revenues increased 33% to $25.6 million, compared with $19.3 million in FY2007. Gross profit increased 50% to $10.7 million, Operating income rose to $3.2 million, a 252% improvement from $0.9 million in FY2007. In FY2008, the Company sold 34.7 million, an increase of 34% over the 25.9 million units sold in FY2007.

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The world's richest university announced that its endowment has lost 22 percent, or about $8 billion, in the last four months. That has placed it on the road for its worst annual returns in 40 years.

I am happy to announce that I was up 36% in just one week from Nov. 21, 2008 to Nov. 28, 2008.

I am better educated financially then Harvard, and all its supposed brilliant faculty and students.

Also check this blog market calls. One November 21, 2008, we nailed the bottom at the exact minute it happened!

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In the 2000 Tech dotcom bubble, tech stocks fell duing July 2000 to April 2001, by 62%. ( - 62% in 9 months)

Now look at the commodity stocks performance from July 08 to November December 08 (4 to 5 months). From the highs to the lows during this period, we have the following:

RJI Commodity ETF: -57%
GSG Commodity ETF: -61%

OIH Oil Service ETF: -71%
XLE Energy ETF: -66%
XME Metals & Mining ETF: -82%
MOO Agribusiness ETF: -70%
GDX Gold Miners ETF: -70%

The commodity stocks have fallen more than 60% in half the time the tech stocks have fallen.

The 2000 tech crash is regarded in people's mind as the worst crash ever. Well it is not anymore, the commodity stocks have broken that record, and did it even in just half the time!

The worst drive in history!

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Some readers are asking why is yen appreciating in november 2008. In fact it has been appreciating a little longer than that, since we announced the top of the yen carry trade.

Yen has been for years the currency with the lowest interest rate among all major currencies. Therefore if someone wanted to buy an asset that pay a dividend like income or if that asset would appreciate, they buy by lending in yen, and converting that currency in the currency they use the buy the assets.

The asset in question can be (and have been) not other than another currency paying a higher interest rate.

When asset prices decline (as has been the case in stocks, and commodities, etc), the loans that were made in Yen have to be paid back.

Therefore, now people need to buy yen. Since there have been an accumulation of position over a long period of time, the buyers of Yen all of sudden overcome the sellers of Yen. Supply and demand then dictates a higher price for Yen, and in a shorer period of time.

Once the trend is set, speculators use the trend to drive the price of Yen even higher.

The top bottom of the Yen and the top of the carry trade was called accurately by this blogger. Do not miss his razor sharp market calls across all assets.

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what is Baltic Dry Index

A reader asked " what is Baltic Dry Index ". The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is a number issued daily by the London-based Baltic Exchange.

It traces its roots to the Virginia and Baltick coffeehouse in London's financial district in 1744. Every working day, the Baltic checks with brokers around the world and asks how much it would cost to book various cargoes of raw materials on a number of important routes, for instance how much it would cost for 100,000 tons of iron ore to transport from San Francisco to Hong Kong, or 1,000,000 metric tons of rice from Bangkok to Tokyo.


Index reflects an assessment of the price of moving major raw materials by sea.

What is most important in the index is its trend. It helps in forecasting and analysis of transportation costs and their implications.

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